Signals

Scores are model estimates, not facts: a base rate computed from this dataset, adjusted by transparent funding-only factors (timing vs cohort gap, round-size momentum, backer re-investment, firm characteristics). No per-company “unicorn” probability is published. In a back-test (cut-off 30 June 2023, 18-month horizon), companies the model placed in their typical raise window went on to raise again about 1.8× as often as the average tracked company (~14% vs ~8%), while companies flagged dormant raised under 1% of the time. Estimates, not predictions.